Can Behavioral Economics explain the curse of penalties?

It's been anything but exciting watching this year's Europe Cup. Despite not being a big football enthusiast myself, there's something to be said about gathering with family and friends to cheer on your team. Even for someone like me, who can barely name two football players 🥲, watching your team compete can become unexpectedly exciting, even exhilarating.

While others may hold a different opinion, I firmly believe that reaching the penalty shootout remains the most thrilling moment in a game— (unless your nation is fighting for a spot in the quarterfinals, in which case it's best not to even consider it 🙄).

The Europe Cup has been full of excitement, and while penalties haven't been frequent, the news has covered Cristiano Ronaldo in tears after missing a penalty against Slovenia. ⚽

Tomorrow, the quarterfinals kick off, starting with my home country, Spain, facing off against Germany. Whether penalties come into play or not (hopefully not), it promises to be an intense match.

One might wonder why a behavioral scientist would delve into football. Well, in this case, Behavioral Economics becomes relevant. 🧠 I keep finding it fascinating to see how Behavioral Economics can be present in almost every aspect of life.

Stay still...if you can 🫸

According to the study "Action Bias Among Elite Soccer Goalkeepers: The Case of Penalty Kicks," by Michael Bar-Eli, Ofer H. Azar, Ilana Ritov, Yael Keidar-Levin, and Galit Schein, they observed that during penalty shootouts, goalkeepers tend to jump left 👈 or right 👉, despite evidence suggesting that staying in the center 🎯 would improve their chances of stopping the penalty.

But consider this... millions of eyes are on you 👀, whether in the stadium or on TV. Your entire country is rooting for you. 🙌 While statistics suggest staying in the center increases your chances of stopping the penalty, would you have the composure to stay still and act "rationally" in front of such a massive audience?

The answer is straightforward. Humans generally favor taking action over remaining inactive, a phenomenon known as Action Bias. “The intuition why is that if the goalkeeper jumps and a goal is scored, he might feel ‘I did my best to stop the ball, by jumping, as almost everyone does; I was simply unlucky that the ball headed to another direction (or could not be stopped for another reason).’ On the other hand, if the goalkeeper stays in the center and a goal is scored, it looks as if he did not do anything to stop the ball (remaining at his original location, the center)—while the norm is to do something—to jump. Because the negative feeling of the goalkeeper following a goal being scored (which happens in most penalty kicks) is amplified when staying in the center, the goalkeeper prefers to jump to one of the sides, though this is not optimal, exhibiting an ‘action bias’." (Bar-Eli et al.)

Surprisingly, Behavioral Economics can shed light on aspects of penalty shootouts. Even highly skilled professional athletes can occasionally act irrationally. Despite knowing the statistics and understanding that staying in the center can sometimes improve their chances of saving a penalty, the fear of inaction often compels them to move, 🏃‍♂️preferring to take action rather than remain still and hope for the best.

As we look ahead to tomorrow's quarterfinals, it's important to remember this. Penalty outcomes are not purely random; they are influenced by various biases and psychological principles 💡 that can affect the final result.

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ps: Keep this in mind if you're planning on being a professional football player or simply want to impress your friends with cool facts on the science behind penalties.

Bibliography:

Bar-Eli, Michael, et al. “Action Bias among Elite Soccer Goalkeepers: The Case of Penalty Kicks.” Journal of Economic Psychology, vol. 28, no. 5, Oct. 2007, pp. 606–621, www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487006001048, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2006.12.001.

“Action Bias.” The Decision Lab, thedecisionlab.com/biases/action-bias.